Cairo: Ethiopia's erratic management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) poses genuine risks to Egypt and Sudan.
According to State Information Service Egypt, Ethiopia continues to haphazardly release water from the reservoir to ease pressure behind its dam, raising significant concerns for downstream countries.
The Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation has reported that the average outflow during the period from 1 to 20 November reached approximately 180 million cubic meters per day. This marks an increase of nearly 80% compared to the historical average for the same period, which is about 100 million cubic meters per day. This substantial rise highlights the continuing sharp fluctuations in water flows in the Blue Nile.
The Ministry's statement emphasizes the risks of unilateral management of the dam, which threatens the rights of downstream countries. The inconsistent releases have affected the operation of downstream dams, necessitating precautionary measures to manage sudden changes and ensure their safe operation.
Minister of Irrigation Hani Sewilam has conveyed that the statement serves as a global message regarding Ethiopia's approach to operating the dam. He reassures Egyptians that the ministry is vigilantly monitoring developments and that Egypt's water-management system is prepared to handle all scenarios.
This is not the first instance of Ethiopia's haphazard operation of the dam. Following the GERD's inauguration in September, both Egypt and Sudan experienced rising River Nile levels and flooding due to Ethiopia's unilateral actions. In response to recent fluctuations, Egypt decided to open the Toshka Canal and Spillway to stabilize the water system and maintain operational stability.
Abbas Sharaki, a professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, explained that discharging water via the Toshka Spillway is necessary when Lake Nasser's water level reaches 182 meters to drain excess water and protect the Aswan High Dam. However, this has delayed scheduled upgrades to the Toshka discharge capacity due to the need to manage Ethiopia's unregulated water releases.
The Ministry's statement detailed the flow of water from the dam in recent months, describing Ethiopia's management as "illegal, unilateral, and unregulated." It outlined that standard operating procedures require the reservoir's water level to be gradually lowered, a process that has not been adhered to by Ethiopia.
The statement highlighted erratic water release figures, including a sudden rise and reduction in water flow, followed by the sporadic opening and closing of the emergency spillway. This irregular operational approach lacks hydrological justification and reflects the absence of a scientifically based management plan for the dam.
Satellite imagery shows the operation of some upper turbines, releasing between 100 to 200 million cubic meters per day, while water from Lake Tana into the GERD, coupled with light rainfall, totals about 70 million cubic meters daily. This indicates that the reservoir level remains high.
Egypt continues to address the GERD issue on international platforms, maintaining its stance against Ethiopia's unilateral measures. It argues that the Nile, as an international river, should be governed by international law. The GERD poses a significant threat to Egypt's water resources, which are already strained, highlighting the urgent need for cooperative water management.