Cairo: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has raised its forecast for the country's external debt service in 2026 by $1.3 billion, bringing the total to $29.18 billion from a previous estimate of $27.87 billion, according to the CBE's latest External Position of the Egyptian Economy report.
According to State Information Service Egypt, the report highlights that principal repayments are expected to reach $23.79 billion, marking an increase of $1.1 billion, while interest payments are anticipated to rise by $250 million, reaching $5.4 billion. The report also indicated that Egypt repaid approximately $30.1 billion in the first nine months of FY2024/2025, which included $24.3 billion in principal and $5.8 billion in interest.
The CBE attributed the overall increase primarily to a $6.8 billion rise in principal repayments, despite a $500 million decrease in interest payments during the same period. As of the end of March 2025, Egypt's external debt-to-GDP ratio had climbed to 44.5 percent, up from 38.8 percent at the end of June 2024. Total external debt increased to $156.7 billion by March 2025, a $3.8 billion rise from June, driven by a $3.3 billion increase in external borrowing.
By the end of September 2025, total external debt had further increased to $161.2 billion, with short-term debt representing 19.2 percent of the total, an increase from 17 percent three months earlier. Egypt's external financing requirements are expected to rise over the next two fiscal years before easing, reflecting the economic impact of regional instability, as noted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF projects Egypt's external financing needs to increase from an estimated $25.9 billion in both FY2025/2026 and FY2026/2027 to $30.4 billion, before declining to $27.5 billion as pressures subside. The fund also revised upward its estimate of Egypt's financing gap for FY2025/2026 from $5.2 billion to $8.2 billion, citing increased external obligations and tighter global liquidity. For FY2026/27, the gap is projected to nearly double to $6.1 billion, compared to an earlier estimate of $3.2 billion.
An IMF mission is anticipated to arrive in Cairo during November for discussions related to the completion of the fifth and sixth reviews of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) loan programme. In a related development, global credit rating agency S and P Global Ratings upgraded Egypt's long-term sovereign credit rating to B from B- in October, for the first time in seven years, citing ongoing economic reforms, improving growth prospects, and stronger external accounts.