Islamabad: Nearly five months after the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran and the subsequent deal intended to pause it, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed due to a dual Iranian and US blockade, prolonging energy shortages and deepening fears of a global economic crisis. Before February 28 of this year, the crucial waterway linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea operated without restriction, allowing daily oil exports from Gulf producers to flow freely to international markets.
According to TRT World, the initial joint US-Israeli strikes had triggered a major regional conflict impacting nearly all GCC countries and beyond, prompting Iran to shut the strait in retaliation. Despite the Pakistan-mediated Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed to end the fighting, the strait has not reopened to normal commercial shipping. Instead, hostilities have resumed with direct US and Iranian tit-for-tat strikes, making the full resumption of war highly likely.
US forces have reportedly targeted infrastructure within Iran, and in retaliation, Iran claims to have struck American military bases and desalination plants in Gulf states, including Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Iran has suspended its commitments to the MoU, citing the need to defend against US attacks. Foreign policy analysts believe the resumption of conflict was inevitable due to differing goals regarding the strategic Strait of Hormuz and the ambiguous terms of the June MoU.
The Islamabad MoU, a 14-point framework agreement, aimed to end the US-Iran conflict. It included terms for an immediate truce, lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and a 60-day negotiation window on Iran's nuclear program and other related matters. However, disagreements over the interpretation of the MoU, particularly clause 5, have led to renewed hostilities. Iran interprets the MoU as granting it control over the strait, while the US argues that Iran's actions violate the agreement.
The ongoing conflict has seen US forces employing advanced military assets against Iranian targets, resulting in significant casualties. Iran has claimed responsibility for attacks on US and allied installations across the region. The violence has also drawn in Gulf nations, further complicating the geopolitical landscape. Mediators like Pakistan and Qatar, who played crucial roles in brokering the MoU, are now working to maintain diplomatic channels and de-escalate tensions.
With the MoU on "life support," the International Crisis Group suggests that mediators seek a standstill arrangement around the strait to halt hostilities. However, both the US and Iran appear committed to using military means to influence negotiations, escalating economic disruption to force a post-war settlement. The situation remains precarious, with potential long-term global economic ramifications if the conflict continues.