New delhi: India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to host the 18th BRICS summit this weekend in New Delhi, marking the first visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to India since 2019. The summit represents a significant moment for India, as its year-long BRICS presidency comes to a close, amidst efforts to enhance engagement with China and Russia while managing a complex relationship with Washington.
According to Deutsche Welle, Modi recently met with both Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on August 31 and September 1. Now, just two weeks later, he will engage with them again at the BRICS summit. However, as BRICS expands in size and struggles with internal divisions, the forum may constrain Modi's diplomatic efforts.
India and China are engaged in a relationship characterized by both cooperation and competition. Indian diplomats are focused on maintaining maneuverability in a shifting international landscape. Ashok Kantha, a former Indian ambassador to China, explains that India's participation in BRICS and the SCO is part of a broader strategy of strategic autonomy. "These groupings provide India a platform to advance its interests while maintaining relations with major powers," Kantha told DW.
However, despite the upcoming summit, the relationship between India and China remains challenging. A border patrol agreement in 2024 ended a four-year military standoff, yet significant issues persist. India reports a trade deficit of over $112 billion with China, and the two nations continue to dispute market access. Observers will closely watch the Modi-Xi meeting for any signs of diplomatic progress, particularly in trade and investment.
Kantha notes that while the visit may stabilize relations, it should not be seen as a reset. "The border remains heavily militarized, and substantial differences over trade, investment, and security persist. India seeks a stable relationship with China without lowering its defenses," he stated.
The expansion of BRICS from its original five members to 11 has highlighted the difficulties in achieving consensus within the group. With members such as Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and Egypt, BRICS leaders face challenges in reconciling diverse relationships with the US and differing interests in global conflicts. The group now includes Iran and the UAE, nations with opposing positions on the war in Iran.
Earlier this year, BRICS foreign ministers could not agree on a joint statement regarding the Middle East crisis, prompting India to issue a unilateral chair's statement. With Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian expected at the Delhi summit, these diplomatic divides are likely to be prominent. Harsh Pant, vice president for Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation, highlights the difficulty of finding common ground within BRICS. "Disagreements are likely to become more frequent," he remarked.
The future of BRICS will also be influenced by the India-China rivalry. India aims to ensure that BRICS addresses the concerns of developing countries and supports the reform of global institutions like the United Nations, IMF, and World Bank. However, India does not want BRICS to become a China-led counterbalance to the West. Modi's government is promoting easier cross-border payments within BRICS and greater use of national currencies in international trade, emphasizing resilience and alternatives to dollar-based financial systems.
Despite differences with the Trump administration, India continues to pursue stronger economic and strategic ties with the US while maintaining its longstanding relationships with Russia and improving relations with China. C Raja Mohan, a strategic affairs analyst, describes India's approach as an "America Plus" strategy, balancing dependencies on the West for capital, technology, and security with strategic ties to Russia and China.
This balancing act becomes increasingly challenging amid intensifying great-power rivalries. A US-China accommodation could leave India vulnerable, while Russia's growing dependence on China is altering the Eurasian balance. An anti-Western BRICS could exert pressure on India over its reliance on the West.
The Delhi summit will reveal the extent of India's influence as it concludes its BRICS presidency. For Modi, the challenge is to advance India's priorities for BRICS, ensuring room for international maneuvering without allowing the group to be dominated by China or reduced to an anti-Western stance.