Amman: The Jordan Strategy Forum released a report titled “The Impact of the Unrest in the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Jordanian Trade Exchange” on Sunday, aiming to assess the reality of Jordan’s trade movements and the potential consequences if the strait experiences closure or continued unrest, given its significance at both local and global levels.

Globally, the Bab al-Mandab Strait represents 30 percent of the total global container trade, including 10 percent of the overall global seaborne oil flows, as reported by The Economist magazine.

Regarding Jordanian foreign trade, the report indicates that the volume of Jordanian trade exchange across the Strait in the Mediterranean from 2020 to 2022 constituted approximately 28 percent of Jordan’s total trade exchange. Jordan’s imports through the Strait accounted for 30 percent of the total imports, which amounted to about $22 billion annually during the same period.

The most notable importing countries, contributing to an annual value of $6.6 billion, include
China, India, the Republic of Korea, Taipei, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore,

Bangladesh, Thailand, as well as other countries in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand.

Goods imported from China and India generally pass through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, constituting the largest share (around 19 percent) of Jordan’s total imports from worldwide sources.

The report highlights that a potential closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait could significantly impact the Jordanian market by raising production costs due to potential interruptions and increased shipping and transportation expenses.

Concerning Jordan’s exports through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the average value reached over $2.1 billion annually from 2020 to 2022, constituting 21.4 percent of Jordan’s total exports to the world.

Major countries receiving exports through the Strait include India, Indonesia, China, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Australia, and Japan, with exports to India through the Strait accounting for 16.6 percent of Jordan’s t
otal exports worldwide.

Chemical and mining industries, such as fertilizers, salts, and inorganic compounds, were the leading products exported through the strait, making up a concentration of up to 92 percent of total national exports via this route.

The report suggests that Jordan’s fertilizer exports would be notably affected if the strait were closed, as they represent 54 percent of the total Jordanian fertilizer exports through all ports.

In conclusion, the report anticipates a tangible negative impact on both Jordanian imports and exports, affecting several economic indicators if the Bab al-Mandab Strait were to close. The forum emphasizes the need to study appropriate alternatives to manage potential risks and mitigate the impact on importers, exporters, producers, and consumers.

Furthermore, the forum underscores the urgency to cease aggression against Gaza and restore stability to the region to enhance resilience and economic growth. This is particularly crucial given the successive global unrest
in recent years and its negative repercussions on world economies, the region, and Jordan specifically.
Source: Jordan News Agency