Amman: The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation (Dhaman) has unveiled on Thursday a 1.8 percent growth in the Arab Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023, reaching around $3.4 trillion. These estimates were based on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October release, coinciding with the expected global economic growth of 3 percent in the same year.
Abdullah Sabeeh, Director-General of the Corporation, expressed positive outlooks for the overall Arab economy in 2024, anticipating a growth rate of 3.6 percent. This optimism is driven by the potential growth of nine oil economies contributing approximately 78 percent of the Arab output, compensating for potential contractions in other economies.
Sabeeh attributed the downturn in most Arab economic indicators in 2023 to various factors, including a 5.2 percent decline in oil production, a 16.5 percent drop in global crude prices, the emergence of negative effects from tightening monetary policies, geopolitical developments, the debt crisi
s, and climate changes, according to a statement that was obtained by the Jordan News Agency (Petra).
Average per capita output in Arab countries witnessed a 4.7 percent decrease to $7,482, with expectations of a 1.2 percent rise to $7,573 in 2024. The average per capita output based on purchasing power parity increased by 3.2 percent to $18,100 in 2023, emphasizing the ongoing disparity between oil-producing and lower-income countries, he added.
The Arab population is anticipated to grow by 2 percent, surpassing 456 million people in 2023, while the average unemployment rate at the Arab level rose to 9.2 percent for the same period. The average rate of consumer price inflation in the Arab region increased to 12.1 percent last year, with expectations of a decrease to 11.7 percent in 2024.
He pointed out that Arab budgets experienced a combined hypothetical surplus decline to $3.3 billion last year, with expectations of turning into a $26.9 billion deficit in the current year, constituting 0.8 percent of th
e Arab GDP. Debt indicators are expected to improve, with government debt stabilizing at 47 percent of the Arab GDP, projected to decline to 46.1 percent this year. External debt is expected to decrease from 50.8 percent to 49.6 percent of the Arab GDP.
Arab foreign trade in goods and services declined by 5.7 percent to less than $3 trillion last year, driven by a 9.7 percent decrease in Arab exports and a 0.4 percent dip in imports. The trade balance surplus decreased by 39 percent to $262 billion in 2023.
The current account surplus of Arab countries declined by 52.3 percent last year, reaching approximately $180 billion, representing 5.3 percent of the Arab GDP. Expectations suggest a further decline to $157 billion in the current year, constituting 4.4 percent of the Arab GDP.
Arab reserves of foreign currencies exceeded the trillion-dollar mark, enough to cover Arab imports of goods and services for 8.6 months, with expectations of further growth to exceed $1.1 trillion this year.
Despite the optimis
tic IMF expectations for the Arab economy, Sabeeh highlighted the dependence on various factors, including the scenarios of the war on the Gaza Strip and its impact on global oil prices, as well as the economic and political conditions of neighboring countries. Additionally, the outcome of presidential and legislative elections in 40 countries during 2024 could influence the economic landscape.
Source:Jordan News Agency